One of the biggest issues of international security currently is that of North Korea (also known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, or DPRK). The most obvious of potential threats the nation poses to the world is that of nuclear war. North Korea currently poses a great threat to countries such as South Korea and Japan, who are within range of its short-range missiles and may potentially pose a great threat to the rest of the world, and especially the United States. Beyond these risks, however, there also remain several other reasons to focus on North Korea and its potential impact on the world, from its geopolitical location, to its leader, human rights violations and alliances.
In regards to the most obvious potential threat North Korea poses -nuclear war- many may argue that based on international experiences with the Cold War, North Korea is actually not much of a threat. As no one launched any nuclear weapons then, no one will utilize their nuclear arsenal now, for the same reason they didn’t then: mutually assured destruction. While that may potentially be true, there always remains the risk that Kim Jon Un may decide to act anyway, for whatever reason anyone chooses to believe: from cold-blooded, calculated cruelty, to a mass tantrum stemming from insanity and/ or immaturity and egocentrism.
Beyond that, North Korea also poses a threat to international security due to its relationships with nearby countries such as China, with whom it shares a border and is immensely economically reliant. China holds great control over North Korea and its future actions, as it accounts for “89% of DPRK foreign trade” (Lecture 10). However, it also does not want a change in regime, for a multitude of reasons. If the North Korean regime falls, it fears an influx of refugees into China, something which it does not wish to deal with. China also fears intervening too much, as North Korea is guilty of committing terrible human rights abuses on a large scale, and pressuring change in the nation would only serve to highlight China’s own human rights abuses (such as the conditions for their factory workers). This is something that would greatly impact Chinese power, as well as trade, primarily with countries such as the U.S. This fact alone greatly hinders any efforts to absolve the many threats North Korea poses, however, it also could potentially be utilized to solve many issues, with both North Korea, and China.
China is one of the largest producers of consumer goods in the world. Many of the goods it produces is for western countries, most notably, the U.S. Perhaps if some form of trade sanctions or regulations could be implemented by, say the United Nations, on China and its production abilities, it could motivate China to positively utilize its influence over North Korea. Currently, one of the only things standing in the way of China properly helping the rest of the world curb North Korea’s threat level is the motivation to do so. If there was a way that could curb economic advance for China, even temporarily, perhaps such change could be inspired (along with, potentially some positive change for China’s human rights issues, if implemented correctly). This, of course, is relatively unlikely, unless such regulations could be designed to not negatively impact those countries and corporation’s dependent on Chinese labor to build their products at a cheap rate. It is also likely that Russia, unless in on the agreement, with help bail China out of any issues, as it wants its fellow communist country to succeed.
Overall, North Korea and its importance to international security and prosperity cannot be ignored or minimized. Regardless of personal opinions of Kim Jon Un’s dangerousness, of the abilities of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, or of any other such factors, due to its geopolitical positioning and consequent relationships with superpowers such as China, its potential influence on and/ or role in international security affairs cannot be underestimated.
I very much agree with your assertion that North Korea is a large threat for international security. Your points regarding China are very compelling, as they are the bridge between the rest of the world and North Korea. As you stated, the only issue in getting China to positively impact North Korea is their own willingness to intervene. They do not want to take down the regime, in fear of the influx of immigrants. Yet they also do not want to confront the human rights violations in the country, as they are guilty of many of their own. However, in the end it is not about China's lack of intervention as a threat, but as you state, the build up of nuclear weapons. I personally do not know what actions must be taken, but I agree that in an ideal situation, China would step in and use its influence in a positive manner.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your statement that North Korea is a threat because the rest of the world does not know what Kim Jon Un intentions are with his nuclear power. However, I disagree with your claim that North Korea is a threat because of its geopolitical position. North Korea is extremely segregated from the rest of the world, by chose no less. Their only ally is China and they only share a border with China and South Korea. Also, if they decided to launch a nuclear weapon, they only have the ability to hit China (which they would never attack), South Korea, Japan, and potentially parts of India. Therefore, even though North Korea has nuclear capabilities, I do not believe their location is beneficial.
ReplyDeleteI personally think that North Korea's external threat of nuclear war is vastly overblown. Kim Jong Un is a very unpredictable individual, but he still understands the risks of nuclear attacks. Presently, I do not think there is a single world leader who produces the capability and fortitude to engage in a nuclear war, especially not with the United States. I think much of North Korea's poor reputation comes from the fact that the only perspective of life there and their government is from the Kim family. There is no possibility for the people of North Korea to provide their perspective, and there is no debate for other nations to witness. Further, the most difficult part of finding out more about the internal affairs of North Korea is infiltrating and gaining the first person perspective, without being held prisoner.
ReplyDelete