The Downfall of ISIS

Ally Tompkins

Global Security Studies

Professor Shirk

Following three years after the major terrorist group commonly known as ISIS or Islamic State gained global attention, the power of the organization is waning drastically. The group has executed several deadly attacks such as those in Paris and Belgium in recent years. However, despite their attacks, the group has lost a significant amount of their territory within the last year. Therefore, the question must be posed as to whether or not going global is beneficial or detrimental to the goals of the group. While extending their presence into other nations the group is able to spread their ideology, the group is threatened as they could potentially extend themselves too far and lose their grasp on the territories that they already have. As their power declines, it becomes evident that their ability to control a large state of territory and maintain a global presence is deteriorating. Through their loss of territory and crumbling of the caliphate, ISIS has significantly lost their physical presence and security as a uniform entity yet maintain the encouragement to spread their combative ideology. 

In July of 2017, ISIS lost control of the Iraq city, Mosul. Mosul had become what was considered the capital of the “caliphate”, according to the terrorist faction. The decline of the “state” has perpetuated as the group is estimated to have lost 22% of its land (Lecture 8) between January 2015 and 2016. Amidst the great territorial losses of the group comes a large loss in revenue for them as well. Without the stability of a territory, much of the logistical strengths of the organization are threatened and thus their security is threatened. In order for the group to maintain their stance as a threat to the west, they must maintain their physical presence in the Middle East. A group of people cannot be secure unless they can provide basic needs to their people. According to Chapter Two of Human Development Report, food and education are amongst the most important aspects of a state’s security. Although ISIS is not a nation, for a time they have been able to provide those living within their “borders” with bread and an education. However, their human security cannot last as they continue to lose territory and alongside that, revenue. ISIS attributed much of its funds to selling oil and taxing those living within their seized territory (Riley). With less land comes less access to oil and fewer people to tax. In losing the city of Mosul, the group lost a large population of former tax-payers and also losing the “oil-rich areas in the Syrian provinces of Raqqa and Homs”(Riley), there has been a substantial decline in their revenue. Therefore, the group’s ability to maintain a uniform presence and large central territory has degenerated alongside a loss of revenue, posing the end for the physical existence of ISIS. 

Although the group has lost vast amounts of its territory and has undoubtedly weakened, it is clear that there will not be an end to the spreading of ISIS’s ideology. While the specific group may not remain as a great terrorist threat, its values will endure far beyond the physical existence of ISIS. Throughout the past three years, the organization has been reaching out and engaging sympathizers through popular social media outlets. In an increasingly digital world, the spreading of propaganda through the internet has a massive impact on the spreading of the group’s ideals. A CNN articles stated that through “Using social media as well as encrypted online communications beyond the reach of law enforcement surveillance, the terror organization is increasingly reaching new sympathizers and encouraging attacks”(Sanchez). A political cartoon by artist Steve Breen depicts a group of ISIS members with arrows indicating the country they were born in, as well as where their weapons were made. All of the nations depicted in the image were from the west-nations such as the United States, Spain, the United Kingdom, and France. Therefore, the cartoon emphasizes the spreading of homegrown ISIS members as they are affected by the group’s propaganda. In the article “What ISIS Really Wants”, the author compares the leaders of ISIS to Hitler, stating that their ability to engage their followers in a way that makes their values seem relevant and important. They are able to make sure that those devoted to the organization “believe that they are personally involved in struggles beyond their own lives…on the side of righteousness”(Wood), truly engaged in the organization’s principles. The group’s calls to action at the height of their empowerment aided in their global expansion of their beliefs and it is clear that the ideas they profess will persist beyond their rule. Prior to the rise of ISIS, al-Qaeda was the predominant threat to the west. The ideas behind the groups will not disappear with the fall of al-Qaeda or the destruction of ISIS; they have expanded to an intercontinental scale. 

While they had a fast rise to power, the terrorist group ISIS has also had a quick decline. As their threat of controlled power diminishes, they lose all of the powers associated with concentrated territory. They will no longer be able to provide for those living within their control as they lose massive amounts of land and much of their monetary assets, therefore eliminated their ability to control human security. Thus without that ability they can no longer maintain such a dominant physical force in their territories. Without territory, it makes it far more difficult for the group to engage in organized attacks, with the exception of lone wolf attacks committed in the name of ISIS. The so-called “lone wolf” attacks are the ones that will outlast the group itself. They are the attacks and people who cling to the rhetoric of such groups, whether it be al-Qaeda, ISIS, or whatever follows. Through social media outreach and calls to action, the beliefs remain through changing groups that enforce them. ISIS may be headed towards its demise, but the world will never be rid of the ideals that fuel the hate. 

Political Cartoon: 

Works Cited:

1. Riley, Charles, et al. “ISIS Is Losing Mosul and Most of Its Income.” CNNMoney, Cable News Network, money.cnn.com/2017/06/29/news/isis-finances-territory/index.html.

2. Sanchez, Ray. “ISIS Exploits Social Media to Make Inroads in U.S.” CNN, Cable News Network, 5 June 2015, www.cnn.com/2015/06/04/us/isis-social-media-recruits/index.html.

3. Human Development Report 1994. Oxford University Press, 1994, hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/reports/255/hdr_1994_en_complete_nostats.pdf.

4. Wood, Graeme. “What ISIS Really Wants.” The Atlantic, Atlantic Media Company, 14 Apr. 2016, www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/.

5. Contributors, FP. “What Comes After ISIS?” Foreign Policy, 10 July 2017, foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/10/what-comes-after-isis-islamic-state-mosul-iraq-syria/.

6. Breen, Steve. i.pinimg.com/474x/f8/d4/e9/f8d4e9a2e2394fe9fca4477d10ac0550--political-comics-political-satire.jpg.