Effectiveness
of the Dayton Accords
Since the signing
of the Dayton Agreement in 1995, there has not been a significant conflict
among the Serbs, Croats, and Bosnians. This is, in part, thanks to the UN
peacekeeping forces in the area. These peacekeepers are merely a guardian of
these three ethnic groups and are using the Dayton Agreement to keep the Serbs,
Croats, and Bosnians in a prolonged timeout. Taking a realist perspective, I
believe that the reemergence of conflict between these three ethnic groups is
inevitable.
It is a common
belief that the Bosnian conflict was caused by ethnic strife between the Serbs,
Croats, and Bosnians. This may have been an underlying factor. However, I argue
that a small dislike of another group was turned into a political tool by the
leaders of each state involved. Often times political actors would act more
moderate to get voted into office, but once in office, would take a more
nationalist approach and preach ethnic superiority. Thus, ethnic strife
increased as more extremist-view people were given power.
Now, almost 22
years after the signing of the Dayton Agreement, these preachings have slowly
diminished. However, like terrorist ideology, this propaganda and beliefs will
never completely disappear. All it takes is another ethnic extremist to take
over, and the ethical cleansings that happened during the ‘90s will begin
again.
Drawing upon
historic events, Hitler rose to power due to the country’s economic depression,
the people’s lack of confidence in the current government, and most
importantly, the country’s hatred of the Treaty of Versailles. In regard to the
Treaty of Versailles, many German nationalists and veterans believed the war
could have been one if they had not been betrayed by protesters and
politicians. These animosities during the years after World War I created the
perfect environment for Hitler to rise to power.
I would argue that
a similar situation could potentially happen in the Balkan region. The Dayton
Accords was a United States backed peace talk/agreement. The lone hegemon in
the world arguably forced the three leaders to discuss a peace agreement. This
most likely created some anger among the three ethnicities because an outside
actor was making them go about their conflict in a different way, instead of
letting them figure it out for themselves. Also, it took Hitler 14 years after
the Treaty of Versailles was signed to become chancellor. Therefore, this rise
to power in the former Yugoslavia area will take time to happen.
Even if there wasn’t
a major ethnic hatred among the three groups before the Bosnian conflict, there
is probably a larger dislike now due to the atrocities committed during the
conflict. Like Hitler with his Antisemitism, it is quite possible a new leader
will try and succeed in bringing these hatreds out once more. Making this even
more possible is the fact that in the past, political actors have acted less
radical in order to get elected, and then presenting their more nationalist
views once in office.
The Dayton Agreement
did not end the conflict between the Serbs, Croats, and Bosnians, it simply suspended
the fighting. Also, this conflict was not the end-all for ethnic tensions in
the region, but rather, due to the ethnic cleansings that took place, made them
even deeper. All it takes is one leader from any of the three ethnicities to
insert nationalist ideals into the heads of his or her people to begin another
conflict between the three major ethnic groups.
I think that your comparison of the Serbs, Croats, and Bosnians conflict to that of the effects of World War II. I agree that it is likely that there could be a re-emergence of such conflicts. The influence of political leaders on its people are a deep thread through both the historic conflicts. In using small dislikes to create a larger conflict, they utilize the power to create such a problem to their own advantage. From such ethnic conflicts stems large atrocities which intertwines hatred into the culture. Thus there is a potential for fighting to continue, as you stated, in which one group gains a rise to power.
ReplyDeleteThe interesting part about World War II and the Yugoslav Wars was that both leaders, while doing some political maneuvering, did ultimately come to power through the democratic process. However, unlike Nazi Germany, Yugoslavia was ethnically heterogeneous at the time of its dissolution. In addition, the concept of Yugoslavia itself was only possible through the West's redrawing of borders. Various territories in Yugoslavia were once part of either the Habsburg Monarchy or the Ottoman Empire, with the boundaries of "Yugoslavia" only being determined by peace treaties from the Balkan Wars or World War I. It was only then that those nations could amalgamate into the entity known as Yugoslavia. Therefore, Dayton, to some extent, was simply another Western redrawing of borders, cleaning up a mess that they were at least partially responsible for.
ReplyDeleteI agree with your argument, and worry greatly about the ways that such tensions will impact not just the region but the world. While the region formerly known as Yugoslavia itself may not have much of a,say, military impact on the international community, any conflict in the region could result in the UN having to intervene, as well as other nations such as the U.S. This was problematic the first time -it created a temporary stability, but no deep-rooted peace- and may be even more problematic now, considering potential resentment towards the U.S. It is also an issue considering countries like Russia may take an interest in the region due to Slavic roots, and that may generally complicate relations between Russia and the U.S. and/or the U.N., for example. Potentially far fetched notions of international impact aside, the general damage that may occur in the region this time around would likely be even more horrific than what was witnessed the first time, and that potential crisis is horrific enough in its own right. However, any potential actions by say the U.S. to attempt to heal some of the divisions would likely not help much either, and thus, unfortunately we might just have to wait and see what happens, as difficult as that is.
ReplyDelete